Using a panel data set of 170 countries and terrorism data from 1970 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease fertility as measured by both total fertility rates and crude birth rates. Furthermore, by using a novel instrumental variable approach, we identify a causal link and address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility of stress, caused by rising birth rates or transitioning…

This article uses monthly data on bilateral trade in conjunction with monthly data on terrorism events and associated fatalities to shed light on the impact of terrorism on trade. Employing a structural model of trade, we provide evidence that, if at all, international terrorism displays effects on bilateral and multilateral trade only in the medium run (more than one and a half years after an …

Tahun Terbit

2014

We propose a new method for simulation smoothing in state space models with univariate states and conditional dependence between the observation yt and the contemporaneous innovation of the state equation. Stochastic volatility models with the leverage effect are a leading example. Our method extends the HESSIAN method of McCausland (2012, Journal of Econometrics, 168, 189�206), which requ…

Economic data are collected at various frequencies but econometric estimation typically uses the coarsest frequency. This article develops a Gibbs sampler for estimating vector autoregression (VAR) models with mixed and irregularly sampled data. The Gibbs sampler allows efficient likelihood inference and uses simple conjugate posteriors even in highdimensional parameter spaces, avoiding a no…

A multivariate positive definite estimator of the integrated covariance matrix of noisy and asynchronously observed asset returns is proposed. We adopt a Bayesian Dynamic Linear Model where microstructure noise is interpreted as measurement error, and asynchronous trading as missing observations in an otherwise synchronous series. Missing observations are treated as any other parameter, as typ…

Most studies of the predictability of returns are based on time series data, and whenever panel data are used, the testing is almost always conducted in an unrestricted unit-by-unit fashion, which makes for a very heavy parametrization of the model. On the other hand, the few panel tests that exist are too restrictive in the sense that they are based on homogeneity assumptions that might no…

This article analyzes multifactor models in the presence of a large number of potential observable risk factors and unobservable common and group-specific factors. We show how relevant observable factors can be found from a large given set and how to determine the number of common and group-specific unobservable factors. The method allows consistent estimation of the beta coefficients in the p…

Financial prices are often discretized�with smallest tick size of one cent, for example. Thus prices involve rounding errors. Rounding errors affect the estimation of volatility, and understanding them is critical, particularly when using high frequency data. We study the asymptotic behavior of realized volatility (RV), which is commonly used as an estimator of integrated volatility. …

Elly Nurlia Rustiani, Pengaruh Program Remedial Dan Gaya Kognitif Terhadap Hasil Belajar Matematika( Eksperimen di SMP Negeri 171 Jakarta ). Tesis. Program Studi Penelitian dan Evaluasi Pendidikan Sekolah Pascasarjana Universitas Muhammadiyah Prof. DR. HAMKA. Jakarta. Januari 2015. Tesis ini bertujuan mengungkapkan dan menganalisis perbedaan hasil belajar Matematika bagi siswa yang mengiku…