Interpreting Circuit Court Voting Patterns: A Social Interactions Framework

fischman, joshua b.;

Many empirical studies have found that circuit judges� votes are significantly
influenced by their panel colleagues. Although this influence is typically measured
in terms of colleagues� characteristics, this article argues that it is better
understood as an effect of colleagues� votes. Applying the latter interpretation,
this article reanalyzes 11 prior studies of panel voting, as well as three novel data
sets, and reveals the impact of colleagues� votes to be strikingly uniform. In
almost every type of case, each colleague�s vote increases the likelihood that
a judge will vote in the same direction by roughly 40 percentage points. This
result is consistent with a strong norm of consensus and can account for nearly
all of the perceived impact of colleagues� party, gender, and race. This finding
raises questions about strategic and deliberative models of panel voting and
helps clarify measurement issues regarding the relationship between judicial
characteristics and voting behavior