The way of the gun: estimating firearms trafficking across the US�Mexico border

mcdougal, l. topher...[at all];

The volume of firearms sold in USA and trafficked across the US�Mexico border is notoriously difficult to estimate. We consider a unique approach using GIS-generated county-level panel data (1993�1999 and 2010�2012) of Federal Firearms Licenses to sell small arms (FFLs) to estimate the realized demand for firearms based on the distance by road from the nearest point on the US�Mexico border. We use a timeseries negative binomial model paired with a post-estimation population attributable fraction (PAF) estimator. We do so to control determinants of domestic demand. We are able to estimate a total demand for trafficking, both in terms of firearms and dollar sales for the firearms industry. We find that nearly 2.2% (between 0.9% and 3.7%) of US domestic arms sales are attributable to the US�Mexico traffic in the period 2010�2012, representing 212,887 firearms (between 89,816 and 359,205) purchased annually to be trafficked.