How will TPP and TTIP Change the WTO System?

hufbauer, gary clyde ; isaacs, cathleen cimino;

The rise of new free trade agreements in the 1990s and early 2000s altered the
dynamic of the World Trade Organization (WTO) as the arbiter of world commerce
forever. Moreover, WTO negotiating rounds over the past decade have been beset
with irreconcilable objectives among WTO members, with emerging market members
fundamentally opposed to opening their markets to exports from advanced countries. The consequence was scant progress and missed deadlines, culminating in the failed Geneva Ministerial of 2008. At the Bali Ministerial in 2013, the WTO members could only muster strength to endorse the Trade Facilitation Agreement, while postponing action on numerous and more contentious Doha issues. The cumulative result is that the WTO is now at the back of the parade in addressing 21st-century trade issues. Two mega-regionals�the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)�will undoubtedly change the multilateral trading system. This article assumes both negotiations will be concluded and ratified by 2018. However, even if neither mega-regional agreement succeeded, their negotiating objectives and ultimate stumbling blocks will shape the future of the WTO. If WTO members collectively reject the lessons, the institution will fade as an arbiter of commercial relations between nations.