Probabilistic Waveform Inversion for 22 Earthquake Moment Tensors in Hungary: New Constraints on the Tectonic Stress Pattern Inside the Pannonian Basin

w´eber , zolt´an;

We have successfully estimated the full moment tensors of 22 local earthquakes with local magnitude ranging from 1.2 to 4.8 that occurred in the Hungarian part of the Pannonian basin between 1995 and 2014. We used a probabilistic waveform inversion procedure that takes into account the effects of the random noise contained in the seismograms, the uncertainty of the hypocentre determined from arrival times and the inaccurate knowledge of the velocity structure, while estimating the error affecting the derived focal parameters. The applied probabilistic approach maps the posterior probability density functions (PPDFs) for both the hypocentral coordinates and the moment tensor components. The final estimates are given by the maximum likelihood points of the PPDFs, while solution uncertainties are presented by histogram plots. The estimated uncertainties in the moment tensor components are plotted on the focal sphere in such a way, that the significance of the double couple (DC), the compensated linear vector dipole (CLVD) and the isotropic (ISO) parts of the source can be assessed. We have shown that the applied waveform inversion method is equally suitable to recover the source mechanism for low-magnitude events using short-period local wave forms as well as for moderate-size earthquakes using long-period seismograms. The non-DC components of the retrieved focal mechanisms are statistically insignificant for all the analysed earthquakes. The negligible amount of the ISO component implies the tectonic nature of the investigated events. The moment tensor solutions reported by other agencies for five of the ML > 4 earthquakes studied in this paper are very similar to those calculated by the applied waveform inversion algorithm. We have found only strike-slip and thrust faulting events, giving further support to the hypothesis that the Pannonian basin is currently experiencing a compressional regime of deformation. The orientations of the obtained focal mechanisms are in good agreement with the main stress pattern published for the Pannonian region. The azimuth of the subhorizontal P principal axis varies from about NNE-SSW in SW Hungary through NE-SW well inside the basin to around E-W in the NE part of the country. Most of the analysed earthquakes occurred on faults or subfaults differently oriented than the main fault system.